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Corporate Sector Expects Economy to Stabilize in 2021: Poll

Topline Securities, a brokerage house in Pakistan, conducted a poll during the first week of December 2020, of over 50 top fund managers and corporates, asking a range of questions regarding their expectations of the economy and the equity market for the upcoming year.

Around 65 percent of the surveyed population comprised of fund managers, while the remaining participants belonged to the corporate sector. This second category included representatives from the Banking sector, Oil and Gas sector, Cement industry, Steel industry, and Auto sector.

Here is a summary of the findings of the survey and the expected economic projections for the near future. A majority of the surveyed individuals expect the economy to consolidate and stabilize in the near future, beginning from the upcoming year.


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One of the interesting observations to have come out of this survey was the popular expectation that the political setup in Pakistan will not go through any changes in the next year. Approximately 96 percent of the surveyed participants expect no change in the political landscape of the country during 2021. Topline Securities, itself too, concurred with this expectation and stated that they also anticipate the current political noise to somewhat fizzle out after the Senate elections.

That is also likely to help Pakistan in re-entering the IMF program that has been suspended.

GDP growth for the year is expected to remain between 1.1 and 2 percent, which is also in line with the previous reports published by international organizations, such as the World Bank.

Pakistan Rupee’s (PKR) exchange rate to the US Dollar (USD) is likely to stay between Rs. 160 to Rs. 165 until December next year, the survey findings revealed. According to money exchangers and foreign exchange experts, who spoke to ProPakistani, also maintained that in the next few weeks at least, the PKR-USD is likely to hover around Rs. 159 to Rs. 160.


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Inflation is anticipated to average between 8.5 and 9.0 percent during FY2021, the survey revealed. This is coupled with the industry expectations that monetary tightening is likely to begin in May 2021, with an anticipated increase of 75-100 bps in the Policy Rate during 2021.

Regarding the stock market, the surveyed population opined that the KSE-100 index is likely to close between 45,000 to 50,000 by December 2021.

Around 36% of the survey participants believe the KSE-100 index is likely to close between 45000-50000 by Dec-2021, while 29% expect the index to close between 50000-55000. Topline estimates that the KSE-100 index will close at 52.5k by Dec-2021.

Net foreign corporate selling is likely to continue, while the Cement industry and Banks are likely to outperform during 2021. However, the E&P companies and the Auto sector are likely to underperform in the upcoming year.

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