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Pakistan’s Consumer Inflation Jumps to 13 Months High

Pakistan’s consumer inflation (CPI) rate jumped to 11.1 percent on a year-on-year basis in April 2021 as compared to an increase of 9.1 percent in the previous month and 8.5 percent in April 2020 mainly due to increase in prices of food items, fruits, and clothing and footwear, says the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

This was the highest rate of inflation in the past 13 months. In February 2020, inflation had jumped to 12.4 percent and 10.2 percent in March 2020.

According to the monthly review of price indices by the PBS, on a month-on-month basis, the CPI increased by 1 percent in April 2021 as compared to an increase of 0.4 percent in the previous month and a decrease of 0.8 percent in April 2020.

The National Consumer Price Index for April 2021 is increased by 1.03 percent over March 2021 and increased by 11.1 percent over the corresponding month of the last year i.e. April 2020.

The CPI inflation Urban, increased by 11 percent on a year-on-year basis in April 2021 as compared to an increase of 8.7 percent in the previous month and 7.7 percent in April 2020.

On a month-on-month basis, it increased by 1.3 percent in April 2021 as compared to an increase of 0.3 percent in the previous month and a decrease of 0.7 percent in April 2020. CPI inflation Rural, increased by 11.3 percent on a year-on-year basis in April 2021 as compared to an increase of 9.5 percent in the previous month and 9.8 percent in April 2020.

On a month-on-month basis, it increased by 0.6 percent in April 2021 as compared to an increase of 0.5 percent in the previous month and a decrease of 1.1 percent in April 2020.

World Bank expects Pakistans consumer price inflation to clock in at an average of 9 percent in 2021, as the recent hike in energy prices is likely to maintain upward pressure on prices for the remainder of the year.

The Sensitive Price Index (SPI) inflation on YoY increased by 21.3 percent in April 2021 as compared to an increase of 18.7 percent a month earlier and an increase of 9.3 percent in April 2020. On an MoM basis, it increased by 0.4 percent in April 2021 as compared to an increase of 5.7 percent a month earlier and a decrease of 1.8 percent in April 2020.

The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation on a YoY basis increased by 16.6 percent in April 2021 as compared to an increase of 14.6 percent a month earlier and an increase of 4.9 percent in April 2020. WPI inflation on a MoM basis decreased by 0.4 percent in April 2021 as compared to an increase of 3.7 percent a month earlier and a decrease of 2.0 percent in the corresponding month i.e. April 2020.

Measured by non-food non-energy urban increased by 7.0 percent on (YoY) basis in April, 2021 as compared to an increase of 6.3 percent in the previous month and 6.4 percent in April 2020. On (MoM) basis, it increased by 0.9percent in April, 2021 as compared to an increase of 0.2percent in the previous month, and an increase of 0.2percent in the corresponding month of last year i.e. April, 2020.

Measured by non-food non-energy Rural increased by 7.7 percent on (YoY) basis in April, 2021 as compared to an increase of 7.3percent in the previous month and 8.5 percent in April, 2020. On (MoM) basis, it increased by 0.7 percent in April, 2021 as compared to an increase of 0.3 percent in the previous month, and an increase of 0.3 percent in the corresponding month of last year i.e. April, 2020.

Measured by 20 percent weighted trimmed mean Urban increased by 9.8 percent on (YoY) basis in April, 2021 as compared to 8.1 percent in the previous month and 6.7 percent in April, 2020. On (MoM) basis, it increased by 0.6 percent in April 2021 as compared to an increase of 0.4 percent in the previous month and a decrease of 0.2 percent in the corresponding month of last year i.e. April, 2020.

Measured by 20 percent weighted trimmed mean Rural increased by 10.6 percent on (YoY) basis in April, 2021 as compared to 9.4 percent in the previous month and by 9.3 percent in April, 2020. On (MoM) basis, it increased by 0.2 percent in April, 2021 as compared to an increase of 0.3 percent in the previous month and a decrease of 0.6 percent in the corresponding month of last year i.e. April, 2020.

According to PBS data, top few commodities which varied from previous month and contributed to Urban CPI among food which registered increase are tomatoes (67.70 percent), vegetables (29.55percent), fruits (22.32percent), potatoes (15.81percent), chicken (7.31percent), cooking oil (2.99percent), vegetable ghee (2.01percent), meat (1.64percent), condiments and spices(1.54percent), and gram whole (1.25percent) and decreased among wheat (9.14 percent), onions (8.33percent), wheat flour (1.94percent), sugar (1.83percent) and pulse moong (1.59percent).

Among non-food items which registered increase are tailoring (4.50percent), household equipment (1.79percent), house rent (1.64percent), hosiery (1.46percent) and construction input items (1.42percent) and decreased in Liquefied Hydrocarbons (3.80percent), electricity charges (1.89percent), motor fuel (1.52percent) and solid fuel (0.37percent).

Top few commodities which varied from previous month, contributed to Rural CPI and which increased among food items are tomatoes (55.54percent), fruits (25.20percent), vegetables (21.71percent), potatoes (12.15percent), cooking oil (2.25percent), vegetable ghee (1.83percent), meat (1.59percent) and mustard oil (1.15percent) and decreased in onions (14.47percent), wheat (10.23percent), sugar (3.13percent), pulse masoor (2.57percent), besan (2.24percent), pulse moong (1.68percent), wheat flour (1.56percent) and chicken (1.12percent).

Among non-food items which increased are tailoring (2.03percent), readymade garments (1.94percent), household equipment (1.49percent), cotton cloth (1.41percent), house rent (1.16percent) and clinic fee (1.12percent) and decreased in Liquified Hydrocarbons (3.74percent), electricity charges (1.89percent) and motor fuels (1.84percent).

Top few commodities which varied from previous month and contributed to WPI inflation and increased included fresh fruits (26.82percent), potatoes (22.10percent), vegetables (17.38percent), poultry (13.39percent), stimulant & spice crops (12.31percent), bajra (9.69percent), towels (6.90percent), mobil oil (4.89percent), jowar (4.63percent), hosiery products (4.50percent), cotton fabrics (4.34percent), cement (3.37percent) and meat (2.82percent) and dcreased among wheat (10.90percent), fibre crops (7.97percent), cotton yarn (6.19percent), sugar refined (4.64percent), wheat flour (2.87percent), diesel oil (2.70percent) and motor spirit (2.31percent).

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