Petrol Prices May Fall Due to International Oil Price Decline

Fuel prices in Pakistan are expected to see another decrease of up to Rs. 10 per liter, with initial estimates suggesting the per liter rates for High-Speed Diesel to fall by Rs. 10 and MS Petrol by Rs. 8 per liter on November 15.

Assuming that international prices remain in the green for the next couple of days, local petrol and diesel prices may go down to Rs. 275.38 and Rs. 293.18, respectively, in the next fortnightly prices effective from 15 November 2023.

The benefit of low global fuel rates may be offset by the Pakistani Rupee’s plunge since October 15 which saw the local unit lose Rs. 10.2/$ to date.

Notably, HSD had become roughly $8-9 per barrel cheaper on average, dropping to $104 during the week, while petrol had decreased by $1 to $90.

To recall, between August 15 and September 15, petrol and high-speed diesel prices rose by Rs. 58.43 and Rs. 55.83 per liter, respectively, to a historic Rs. 331-333 per liter at retail until September 30. Later, due to the PKR’s massive recovery from below 300 to above 278, fuel and diesel rates were slashed by Rs. 52 and Rs. 26 per liter, respectively, on the 1st and 15th of October.

On 31st October, the prices of petrol and HSD were retained at Rs. 283.38 per liter and Rs. 303.18 per liter, respectively. At the last fortnightly review of petroleum prices, the interim government retained fuel prices despite expectations of up to Rs. 18 per liter relief.

Notably, the PKR has depreciated 3.5 percent to 287/$ compared to a  fortnightly average of 277/$ on October 16, while the prices of WTI, Brent, and Arablight dropped by ~11.6 percent, ~11.1, and ~9.6 percent.

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